Posted: May 21st, 2010 | Author: admin | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Allocations, April, Bank Of America, Barron, Brokerage Houses, Entire System, Etf, Ewj, Financial Disaster, Fraud Charges, Goldman Sachs, Hot Button, Ijt, Ishares Msci, Market Stock, Market Timing, Middleman, Msci Japan Index, Quarterly Profits, Refor, Scz, Sentiment Indicators, Small Cap, Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Updates, Stock Updates | No Comments »
Weekly stock market updates that went out to subscribers during April 2010. To receive current weekly update sent to your email, click on the FREE TRIAL link at the top of the page.
Weekly Market Update 4/4/10
Most of the markets finished up just shy of 1% for the week. Not
much else has changed. I think the upside from her is limited and
risk of entry from this point is to great.
Weekly Market Update 4/11/10
The markets have continued to rise and more sentiment indicators are
reaching extremes. Long entries at this point carry additional risk.
That being said, Barron’s Quarterly mutual fund report is out this
week. So, if you plan on following the Quarterly ETF Strategy, Monday
will be the day to place your trades. Based on the system I sent to
you in the Quarterly ETF Strategy email here is the allocations for
this quarter:
Quarterly ETF Strategy Allocation
25% IJT-iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Growth
25% IJS-iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Value
25%. EWJ-iShares MSCI Japan Index
25% SCZ-iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap
I am allocating 25% of my total portfolio to this strategy so I will
be putting 1/16 of my total portfolio into each of the four ETF’s
listed above. By the way, as of Fridays close, this strategy was up
5.11% for the first quarter.
Weekly Market Update 4/18/10
The markets finally took a 1% hit on Friday when the SEC brought
fraud charges against Goldman Sachs. I would like to see some of the
Wall Street firms pay for bringing our economy to the brink of
financial disaster. Usually when they make a mistake the damage is
limited. This time they almost brought down the entire system. That
being said it doesn’t sound like the SEC has much of a case.
Brokerage houses quite frequently act as the middleman, and that
seems to be what they were doing this time. The timing of the
charges is quite suspect. Bank of America and Chase both reported
quarterly profits over $3 billion, while the senate is getting ready
to vote on a Financial Reform bill. I think this bill is virtually
guaranteed to pass. Even though all the republicans are apposed to
it, I don’t think this is the hot button topic that Health Care was,
and most Americans are probably not apposed to it.
From a technical perspective this could be the catalyst for at least
a minor retracement in the markets. The markets have been overbought
from both a technical and sentiment perspective for the past few
weeks. It is possible that the profit taking could continue this
week.
Weekly Market Update 4/25/10
Well the Goldman Sachs charges do not appear to be the catalyst I
was hoping they might be. The market shrugged of the news and
performed strongly this week and nothing much else has changed.
Market sentiment is still extremely bullish. The small cap portion
of the quarterly ETF portfolio was up over 4% this week.
Posted: April 13th, 2010 | Author: admin | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Daunting Task, Diversification, Eggs In One Basket, Etf, Free Trial Link, Market Timing, Multiple Systems, Rally, Retracement, Short Covering, Sideline, Sidelines, Spy System, Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Updates, Stock Updates, Stocks, Subscribers, Target, Updates March, Vix | No Comments »
Weekly stock market updates that went out to subscribers during March 2010. To receive current weekly update sent to your email, click on the FREE TRIAL link at the top of the page.
Weekly Market Update 3/7/10
It was a very good week for the markets. The SPY broke through 111.60
on Monday, and finished the week within 1% of the highs for 2010. As
I said last week once 111.60 was taken out the next logical target
would be the highs made in January. I was surprised the move came as
quickly as it did. It pains me to be on the sideline during a week
like this. I think the upside this week is probably limited. The SPY
is extremely overbought. The VIX has reached a level that has not
been seen since May 2008, shortly before the market peaked. The rally
this week came on lower than average volume. I think the rally this
past week was more likely desperate short covering than aggressive
new buyers.
Weekly Market Update 3/14/10
Another good week for the markets and I am on the sidelines. I got a
buy signal on March 4th. Unfortunately I had gotten used to being
able to get in on a retracement after this particular signal is given.
We have yet to see that retracement. My bad and I am sorry we have
missed this move.
This does bring up a good point regarding diversification. It is
never a good idea to have all your eggs in one basket. We usually
think of diversification in terms of having multiple stocks instead
of just a few. This is why I trade ETF’s like the SPY. It can quickly
become a daunting task trying to keep up with enough stocks to get a
fair amount of diversification. However there is another form of
diversification I want to discuss with you and, that is system
diversification. The SPY system I follow did an excellent job of
being out of the markets when things got ugly. But it is one system
and no one system is right 100% of the time. That is why I think it
is best to diversify with multiple systems that have worked well over
time and are not overly optimized.
I have finished the research on a quarterly ETF system that over the
last 10 years would have doubled your money. I will be adding this at
the end of the quarter for some added diversification.
Not much to say on the markets this week. Unfortunately, I cannot in
good conscience recommend buying the market when it is this overbought.
I will be waiting for something to upset this trend. If congress
manages some resolution on health care reform, that could be the
trigger. I will keep you posted.
Weekly Market Update 3/21/10
Well the market finally ended, on a daily basis, its streak of
consecutive up closes. It was a very impressive run. Bullish market
sentiment has reached a level that should limit any advance from
here. The market should be sideways or down over the next few weeks.
If we get a pullback it could give us a buy setup.
The potential market reaction from any health care reform passed is
the real wild card here. Typically the market seems to know all that
is knowable. The exception would be natural and man-made disasters.
The “buy the rumor sell the fact” saying is what keeps coming to
mind. What I mean is the market has rallied to this point. I think
any sense of finality in regards to the healthcare reform, could be
a turning point.
Weekly Market Update 3/28/10
Well the market continued its climb this week. Not even major
healthcare legislation could stop it. Well if I had not been out of
the market yet I would now be looking for an exit. Momentum has
definitely slowed and we are starting to see technical indicators
set up for a sell signal. The MACD has turned negative for the first
time since February 16th. The RSI indicator is showing a bearish
divergence. More and more sentiment indicators are reaching bullish
extremes. I know last week I said the market should be sideways to
down over the coming weeks. Going into this past week I would have
given the market no more than 2% on the upside. I would be very
surprised if the market is up over 1% at any point this coming week,
and I think we will see negative returns for the week.