Market Timing – Weekly Stock Market Strategy – June 2010

Weekly stock market strategy updates that went out to subscribers during June 2010. To receive current weekly update sent to your email, click on the FREE TRIAL link at the top of the page.

Weekly Stock Market Strategy Update 6/5/10

Well my rare but reliable ADX signal is not looking so good. Maybe you were fortunate enough to wait until the final hour of trading on Thursday. If so, you may not have taken the trade. That is usually how I place the trades but since I had back tested this ADX system with a buy stop that is how I placed the trade. Since I suggested this only as a more aggressive trade, hopefully most of you did not take it. I will exit this trade at 104.25 on a stop.

So much for a cascade of buy signals following the ADX buy signal. The buy stop was barely breached on Thursday morning before the selling began. A weak afternoon rally could not even reach the stop level. Friday’s weak employment report was all that was needed to start the sell off. It appears the 104-105 level on the SPY will have to be tested a third time. The more the market sells off the more bullish I am getting. It just becomes a matter of waiting for the market to stabilize and start generating some buy signals. However, just because sentiment has declined and the market has sold off, does not mean we can’t see a prolonged decline.

Weekly Stock Market Strategy Update 6/12/10

The market has found a range that it is comfortable in. Until the SPY has two consecutive closes above 111.50 or below 104.00, it is not entirely possible to no which direction this market will trade in the intermediate term. I think the odds are slightly in favor of a bullish move out of this range. Currently however, it is to early to make a trade based on that assumption. We will have to watch and wait.

Weekly Stock Market Strategy Update 6/20/10

Thursday and Friday the SPY managed to close above 111.50, which I had pegged as resistance. The market is now overbought and looks like it needs to take a breather or sell off a little before it can work its way higher. I have not seen any new buy signals but they could come when the SPY takes out the high of 111.73. There is nothing else to report this week. If signals are generated I will send out a midweek update.

Weekly Stock Market Strategy Update 6/27/10

The SPY traded down Monday thru Thursday. The sell off was a little more than I had anticipated. Now the SPY is oversold and Friday’s consolidating price action indicates that a close above Fridays high could be at least a decent short term buying opportunity. Looking at the charts this week, the possibility of breaking support near 104 on the SPY, needs to be considered. The weekly chart looks as if a Head and Shoulders formation might be in the making. If we do manage multiple closes below support at 104 the target would be around 87. That is quite a sell off from current levels and is by no means what I expect to happen. However since there is such strong support at 104 and the SPY closed near 108, the downside risk is somewhat limited at 4%. If you’re wrong you risked 4%. If you’re right this may be the best buying opportunity for the next three months. This suggestion is based purely on technicals and is not generated by any systems that I watch. For that reason I will not track this as an official buy signal.

Market Timing – Weekly Stock Market Update

The following emails went out over the last several weeks to our subscribers. If you would like to receive more timely market updates, go to the FREE TRIAL page and enter your name and e-mail address where it says join BuyandHoldisDead.com.

Due to the volatility in the markets I have included the current Market Update that went out to subscribers.

Weekly Market Update 10/3/09

Our profit margin took a hit this week. I have moved the stop for all long SPY positions to 101.49. This stop was sent out in a mid-week update. If we get stopped out we are sitting pretty close to break-even.

The Volatility Index or VXO as spiked higher and generated a sell signal for the SPY. This is part of the reason I am leaving our stop right below Fridays low. I don’t want to get caught long if the market decides to sell off sharply. The RSI, which is one of my favorite indicators, is very close to indicating a change in trend. On Friday the 14 period RSI closed at 43.17. If the RSI closes below 40 for more than a couple days, I would no longer be looking to buy dips.

Mid-Week update sent out 10/2/2009

The market is expected to open down another 1% today. This is on top
of Thursdays sell-off. This is not the time of year I like to see
Sentiment and economic numbers change.
I recommend exiting all long SPY position with a sell stop @ 101.49.
If the market fundamentals improve we can always get back in later.

Weekly Market Update 9/27/09

I am leaving our sell stop at 100.32. We have reached a point in this retracement where it is safe to consider adding to our long position with limited risk on the down side. I am only looking to add an additional 10% to our long position if filled we would be 30% long. I will place a buy stop at 105.46. If the market continues to make lower highs I will be lowering this stop.